I remember having a debate whether competiions like
Roll Up the Rim or
McDonald's Monopoly have different odds of winning depending on your location. Although I never dove into the math, my logic was that if you're allocating a certain amount of cups/french fry boxes based on the region (because there are different level of demands), the customer is no longer picking their entry from the original pool, thus changing the odds. A recent
article on CBC analyzing the odds for
Roll Up the Rim confirmed my suspicion.
The differences stem from the fact that the chain allocates a set number of prizes and winning cups among the 248,889,000 that will be distributed in the two-month promotion to eight distinct regions. The contest rules and distribution patterns are set out on the Tim Hortons website.
And when you do the math, you realize that the odds can vary from place to place, in some cases considerably. This is especially so for the main prize, the 30 Toyota RAV4s. But it's also true to a lesser extent for the three other big rewards: the one hundred 50-inch plasma TVs from Panasonic (value $6,000); the 500 cash prizes of $1,000; and the 10,000 Broil King BBQs (value: $369).
Generally speaking, places that have higher demand leads to higher individual odds to winning the prizes. However, it doesn't mean the company won't skew the odds on occasion.
However, coffee and doughnut connoisseurs in Tim's emerging markets such as the 10 U.S. states, where the contest is also underway, and Quebec, where the chain is in a market fight with rival Dunkin' Donuts seem to have a distinct advantage when it comes to rrrolling up a winning tab.
So the
REAL point is, if you want to win a RAV4, you should be in Quebec which has a 1 in 4 million compared to the 1 in 6 million odds here in Alberta. Though I suppose those odds don't look so bad considering my odds of passing my midterm tomorrow...
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